Shadow Fleet posturing: Russian Navy assumes escort of tanker Sirtaki through the Gulf of Finland
Following the failed attempt to interdict tanker Jaguar, the Russian Navy has likely begun escorting crude oil tanker Sirtaki through the Gulf of Finland.
Marshall Islands registered crude oil tank Sirtaki departed the Kaliningrad region by early afternoon 17 May 2025 with a stated destination of St. Petersburg, highly likely to load with Russian crude oil.
Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Pr.02980 class rescue tug “Aleksandr Frolov” departed homeport Baltiysk during the forenoon 17 May and highly likely rendezvoused with tanker Sirtaki north west of Cape Taran by mid-afternoon.
Both Sirtaki and Alexsandr Frolov continued to head north overnight and during the forenoon 18 May, were west of Kalana and will commence a Gulf of Finland eastbound transit during the early afternoon.
Following the failed interdiction of tanker Jaguar by Estonian Forces on 13 May in which Russia deployed a Su-35S fighter jet and NATO scrambled a Portuguese Air Force F-16, it is likely Alexsandr Frolov has assumed an overt escort of the tanker Sirtaki as a visible deterrent to prevent further interdiction attempts by Baltic States. It is highly likely Russia will begin to closely monitor the transit of Shadow Fleet tankers and there is a realistic possibility that Russia may seek to increase or reinforce its presence in the Gulf of Finland in order to respond quickly if needed.
Alternatively, there is a realistic possibility the timing is coincidental and Aleksandr Frolov is conducting inter-port transfer escort for an unidentified warship between Baltiysk and Khronstadt/St. Petersburg. All three Baltic Fleet based Pr.02980 class tugs (SB-123, Alexsandr Frolov and Nina Sokolova) regularly conduct escort of warships between their homeport Baltiysk and Khronstadt/St. Petersburg; indeed, Nina Sokolova conducted a Gulf of Finland eastbound escort for a unidentified Buyan/Buyan-M class missile corvette during 16-17 May 2025.
Comment
Deterring Shadow Fleet operations is becoming a high priority for NATO and both The West and Russia are entering an extremely dangerous period. Given the high stakes involved, it is highly likely Russia has begun measures to deter interdiction by Western nations and to increase its ability rapidly respond to any further attempts to staunch the flow of oil from its shores.
Of great interest but its significance perhaps missed by the casual observer, immediately following the Jaguar incident on 14 May, Russia issued a maritime closure area (NAVWARN 107/25) for the eastern Gulf of Finland from Gogland island within Russian State territorial waters and to the south bordering Estonian territorial waters, valid between 13 May to 1 September 2025. This is a significant preparatory step and in the event of any future confrontation, could be used as a legal basis to justify retaliation in the Gulf of Finland. For example, it is conceivable that, in the heat of a future interdiction scenario, an interdicting Western vessel could inadvertently stray into these closure areas and therefore, be legally interdicted or fired upon.
Since mid-November 2024 Russian Navy Baltic Fleet forces have improved their fleet-wide C2 capability, reviving legacy Cold War communications architecture and all vessels/subordinate Commands could transition to their highest states of readiness at extremely short notice.
The risk of miscalculation is high and with Russia closely monitoring its interests and demonstrably paving the way for confrontation, the next intervention could result in a more kinetic exchange. The passage of Frolov and tanker Sirtaki feels like an important event although whether this is an isolated incident or a trend will be determined by time.
Update 19 May 2025
Both vessels entered the Gulf of Finland during the afternoon 18 May 2025 and continued to track east in close company. Tanker Sirtaki detached from Frolov and entered the holding anchorage north of Mohni island during the 2100Z hour, likely to await an opportunity to load cargo. Tug Frolov continued to head east and likely arrived in the Khronstadt area during the forenoon, 19 May.
Update 22 May 2025
Tug Aleksandr Frolov departed Khronstadt during the forenoon 19 May 2025 and conducted a direct return transit to homeport Baltiysk where it arrived during the early afternoon, 22 May 2025. Tanker Sirtaki remains in the holding anchorage north of Mohni island in the Gulf of Finland likely awaiting an opportunity to load cargo.
James Droxford is a former Navy and Intelligence Agency signals intelligence officer and Defence Intelligence submarine and C4I desk officer/analyst. Now a civilian, he is an independent maritime intelligence producer, analyst and reporter focusing on Russian maritime activity.