Russian underwater intelligence vessel Yantar arrives at the wreck of MV Ursa Major
Yantar likely to survey the wreck of Ursa Major for feasibility of cargo recovery, evidence of sabotage and/or attempt to retrieve or destroy any sensitive Military equipment
The Russian Ministry of Defence Main Directorate of Deep Water Research (GUGI) owned and operated Project 22010 class special purpose intelligence collection vessel “Yantar” which has been operating in the Mediterranean Sea since November 2024, arrived over the datum of the foundered cargo vessel MV Ursa Major during the forenoon, 15 January 2025.
It is worthy of note that Rear Admiral Alexander Konovalov, Commander of the 29th Special Purpose Submarine Brigade which operates special mission craft for GUGI, is likely to be onboard Yantar. During a second port visit to Algiers between 11-14 January 2025, Rear Admiral Konovalov was photographed at a courtesy reception for Yantar with the Algerian Navy Brigadier-General in charge of the 1st Military District at Algiers.
The presence of Rear Admiral Konovalov onboard Yantar suggests he may have deployed to oversee the execution of the underwater investigation of Ursa Major.
With its unique underwater reconnaissance capabilities, consisting of both Manned and Unmanned AUV/ROVs, Yantar is uniquely equipped to conduct a thorough underwater investigation of the wreck and could recover any objects of interest to the investigation team from either within MV Ursa Major or the surrounding area.
There is historical precedence for this and in 2017, whilst operating in the Levant area, Yantar likely recovered or destroyed cryptographic and other sensitive military devices from Russian Mig-29K and Su-33 aircraft which crashed into the sea while operating from Russia’s sole aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov.
Survey for later cargo recovery?
Alternatively, and possibly more likely given the parlous state of Russian heavy engineering, Yantar could also use her embarked underwater capabilities to conduct a feasibility survey of the cargo.
Of note, MV Ursa Major was reportedly carrying two 45-ton hatches destined for Project 10510 class nuclear-powered icebreaker “Rossiya” which is currently under construction at Zvezda shipyard in Bolshoy Kamen. The hatches were visible on deck and it is likely these separated from the deck as Ursa Major sank and are located on the seabed in the vicinity of the datum.
Construction on Rossiya slowed significantly because the original contractor for large metal items was located in Ukraine. That company’s facilities were damaged during Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and heavy metalwork had to be re-contracted to a domestic Russian supplier. With sanctions biting hard, it is likely Russia would want to assess the feasibility of recovering the two 45-ton hatches (at a later date) to re-energize the Project 10510 class construction timeline.
Background
The Oboronlogistika owned MV Ursa Major sank on 23 December 2024 around 46NM north of the Algerian port of Oran in the western Mediterranean Sea whilst conducting a military cargo related mission from the Baltic Sea port of St. Petersburg to Vladivostok. In a report to RIA Novosti, the ship owners believed that Ursa Major sank as a result of a targeted terrorist attack which ship’s crew members described as “three successive explosions on the starboard side, near the stern”.
Russian authorities have almost certainly interviewed the Captain and Engineering Officers of the Ursa Major about the cause of the sinking and it is likely this operation will, in part at least, attempt to corroborate crew accounts and reveal the cause of the sinking which is believed, by Russian authorities, to be a terrorist attack.
It should be borne in mind that MV Ursa Major was engaged in a Military logistics mission at the time of her sinking and it is highly likely she carried sensitive military equipment and documents such as cryptographic codes or communications equipment which Russia will either want to destroy or retrieve.
Alternatively, as Ursa Major was transiting between two military ports, the possibility exists that she was carrying equipment or capabilities of a sensitive nature which Russia would want to protect. If these cannot be recovered to Yantar a controlled demolition of those items would be the most likely course of action.
Updates on Yantar’s return voyage will appear below
Update 17 January 2025
Yantar highly likely completed any underwater investigation work to MV Ursa Major datum during late PM 16 January 2025 before heading west highly likely ahead of forecast bad weather in the Alboran Sea which would have precluded further underwater operations for at least the next five days.
It is not known if, or how many visits, Yantar’s underwater vehicles were able to make to Ursa Major but there is a realistic possibility at least one dive was successful before conditions became unfavorable.
Yantar was visually identified departing the Mediterranean Sea by local maritime enthusiasts and OSINT stalwarts, Daniel Ferro, Michael Sanchez and Peter Ferrary during the 1200Z hour, 17 January 2025.
Yantar’s onward routing is not known but a short survey in the North Atlantic is likely before return to homeport Olenya Guba likely around mid-February 2025.
Update 21 January 2025
After departing the Mediterranean Sea on 17 January 2025, Yantar conducted a direct transit to the English Channel and entered the Ushant TSS northbound during the early evening 20 January 2025. On the 21 January, Yantar was noted 25NM north of Guernsey during the 0600Z hour, entered the Dover Strait TSS during the 1400Z hour and entered the North Sea during the 2100Z hour. Yantar continued to head north and is likely conducting a return transit to Olenya Guba however, there remains a realistic possibility Yantar may conduct a short survey period in the North Sea or Norwegian Sea enroute.
Update 24 January 2025
Yantar entered the Skagerrak during the early morning 24 January 2025 likely for weather avoidance due to Storm Eowyn. The storm is projected to follow what is likely Yantar’s return course through the Norwegian Sea over the next 48 hours so a loiter in Skagen roads over the next 48-72 hours is likely.
Alternatively, but assessed as less likely, Yantar could enter the Baltic Sea either to conduct a port visit or conduct surveillance operations. With NATO Exercise Baltic Sentry entering its second week, Russia may position Yantar for presence operations or as a counter surveillance asset.
Update 26 January 2025
Yantar completed a 32-hour weather avoidance loiter (Storm Eowyn) in the Skagen roads and got underway during the 1700Z hour, 26 January 2025 and entered the North Sea during the 0700Z hour 26 January. It is likely Yantar will resume a return transit to homeport Olenya Guba however, there is a realistic possibility of a short survey in the Norwegian Sea enroute.
Update 27 January 2025
Yantar continued a northerly transit of North Sea along the Norwegian littoral during the 26 January 2025 and entered the southern Norwegian Sea, west of Floro, during the forenoon 27 January. It is assessed Yantar is continuing her return to homeport Olenya Guba.
Update 28 January 2025
Yantar continued an uneventful northerly transit of the Norwegian Sea during 27 January 2025 and was located south west of Bodo during the forenoon 28 January. It is assessed Yantar is continuing her return to homeport Olenya Guba however, there remains a realistic possibility of a short survey in the north Norwegian Sea enroute.
Update 30 January 2025
Yantar continued an uneventful north-easterly passage of the Norwegian Sea during the 28 January however, there is a realistic possibility Yantar loitered west/north west of Tromso on 29 January 2025.
This location is of high interest as it is where Yantar loitered on 3 November 2024 (during the outbound leg of her current mission) and where the PP Shirshov Institute of Oceanology owned and operated RV “Akademik Boris Petrov” loitered on 4 November 2024 (while returning to Kaliningrad from Murmansk).
The reason for Yantar’s loiter north west of Tromso is not known however, as both units are capable of operating underwater vehicles, the possibility exists that either Yantar or Boris Petrov may have deployed a sensor in the area during November 2024 for retrieval by Yantar on her return voyage.
Norwegian, UK and US submarines are known to transit through and operate in this general location so the area would be of acoustic interest to Russian Military and Scientific intelligence agencies. This hypothesis may sound far-fetched, but it is an eminently more successful method of gathering usable acoustic intelligence on one’s adversaries than using commercial fishing or merchant vessels fitted with sub-optimal sensors deployed over the side, as speculated by the Nordic Press.
Update 31 January 2025
After departing the area north west of Tromso late on 29 January, Yantar resumed transit towards the Barents Sea, likely rounded North Cape during the evening of 30 January and returned to Northern Fleet waters early on 31 January. It is likely Yantar will return to homeport Olenya Guba on 1 February 2025.
James Droxford is a former Navy and Intelligence Agency signals intelligence officer and Defence Intelligence submarine desk officer/analyst. Now a civilian, he is an independent maritime intelligence producer, analyst and reporter.
A depth of 2600 meters is hardly a problem for an unmanned deep water vessel - but do Yantar have sufficient lifting capacity to retrieve anything heavy (like an icebreaker reactor hatch) ? And fotos do not suggest room for storage on the aft deck where the cranes are located.