Russian research vessel “Sibiryakov” conducts operations in the Skagerrak, 16 June 2024
Sibiryakov conducted a probable intelligence gathering operation from the Skagerrak on 16 June 2024. The subject of this operation may have been the Israeli Navy’s newest submarine INS Drakon.
Russian research vessel “Sibiryakov” conducts operations in the Skagerrak, 16 June 2024
Russian research vessel Sibiryakov conducted a probable intelligence gathering operation from the Skagerrak on 16 June 2024.
The subject of this operation may have been the Israeli Navy’s newest submarine INS Drakon.
The general area visited by the suspected underwater spy vessel Sibiryakov does contain the type of underwater (UW) infrastructure of interest to Russia but crucially, Sibiryakov loitered in the Skagerrak, an area with much less asymmetric interest. The German submarine manufacturer ThyssenKrupp Marine Services (TKMS) conducts sea trials of its newly constructed submarines in the North Sea & Skagerrak.
The five-day Out-of-Area (OOA) mission by Sibiryakov is quite rare and suggests the Russian Navy may have reacted to a high-priority intelligence target or a unique intelligence collection opportunity.
A hypothesis about the mission & tasking carried out by Sibiryakov is explored below.
Background
In some respects, the Russian Navy Baltic Fleet Project 865 oceanographic research ship (OIS) Sibiryakov could be considered a hybrid intelligence collection vessel. Hiding behind a “White Fleet” research persona, her comprehensive underwater (UW) capability, including towed sonar survey & acoustic equipment is used overtly for her primary role of hydro-meteorological collection & she undoubtedly contributes data to the Russian Department of Navigation and Oceanography of the Ministry of Defence which is responsible for performing hydrographic surveys & issuing nautical data for the safety of all mariners.
Using her UW sensor suite, which can highly likely be augmented by modularized mission-specific sensors, Sibiryakov supports Russian State & manufacturer’s sea trials of new construction (NEWCON) ships & submarines built at Baltic shipyards and also vessels conducting post-maintenance sea trials, ensuring that acoustic signature measurements are within the manufacturer’s stated tolerances before being handed over to the customer.
However, covertly Sibiryakov also conducts intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations for the Russian Navy & gathers intelligence to support specific operations.
Sibiryakov conducted a secondary survey over the Nord Stream pipelines north west of Bornholm Island mid-June 2022 (following up a previous survey conducted by another unit in early June 2022). In 2023, Sibiryakov was active in the western Gulf of Finland near the route of the Balticconnector pipeline for several days before breaking off to conduct ISR operations & tracking NATO Exercise BALTOPS 2023 vessel departures from Tallinn on 4 June with OIS Admiral Vladimirskiy.
Sibiryakov mission activity (7 - 18 June 2024)
Sibiryakov conducted a port visit to Baltiysk between 7 – 11 June 2024 and there is a realistic possibility this was to embark specialist equipment and/or personnel for her OOA mission. It is worthy of note that this type of port call activity was seen by OIS Admiral Vladimirskiy before and after her deployments to the North Sea.
Having spent the 11 June at anchor in the Baltiysk roads, Sibiryakov got underway on 12 June heading north west towards Karlskrona & passed to the north of Bornholm Island during the 0300Z hour of 13 June where she was intercepted by the Danish Navy. Sibiryakov conducted a northbound transit of the Oresund Strait & was visually identified by an SVT News crew passing Helsingborg during the 1400Z hour proceeding north towards the Skagerrak.
Sibiryakov entered the Skagerrak during the forenoon 14 June & upon entering the North Sea around midnight Zulu hour 15 June, she commenced a single anti-clockwise circuit off the western Danish coast, returning towards the Skagerrak during the late evening where she loitered throughout the 16 June into the early part of 17 June when she began a southbound transit of the Kattegat.
Sibiryakov re-entered the Baltic Sea via the Great Belt on 18 June 2024.
What was Sibiryakov doing in the North Sea?
Given previous well publicized Russian oceanographic vessel activity in the North Sea particularly by OIS “Admiral Vladimirskiy” in 2022 & 2023, it is tempting to think that Sibiryakov was engaged in UW infrastructure mapping however, whilst her operating area did contain cables of likely interest, Sibiryakov did not loiter in the North Sea but reversed course back to the Skagerrak & loitered there.
Analysis of the Sibiryakov NAVTRK suggests there is a realistic possibility she may have intercepted a Contact-of-Interest (COI), 86NM west of Esbjerg during the late evening 15 June and it is possible that the COI exited the Kiel canal at Brunsbuttel earlier in the day. Sibiryakov could have followed the COI back towards the Skagerrak where she continued to observe it at slow speed through the 16 June and into the early part of 17 June.
The exact nature of any COI is unknown however, the German submarine manufacturer TKMS is known to conduct sea trials of newly constructed submarines in the Skagerrak so there is a realistic possibility the COI was s submarine. Given the primary and secondary UW survey & signature measurement roles of Sibiryakov her innate equipment fit & specialist personnel coupled with the ability to be augmented by specialist equipment, she would be a formidable acoustic intelligence collection platform.
Acoustic intelligence (ACINT), data derived from the collection & analysis of a target vessel’s acoustic signature, is a priority intelligence requirement for all Navies. Just like ELINT, where collected & analyzed data is used to build a threat library within automatic Above Water Warfare threat identification systems, ACINT data can be used within a library to help an operator identify a threat platform.
Who are the likely COI candidates?
The Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) newly constructed (NEWCON) conventional diesel electric submarine “RSS Invincible” has been widely reported on sea trials during the Spring 2024 however, the signature measurements of Singaporean submarines, which do not regularly operate in proximity to Russian Navy vessels are unlikely to be of more than a cursory interest to Russian Naval Intelligence departments.
A higher priority Russian intelligence target for acoustic signature recovery would be the new Israeli Navy Dolphin II variant conventional submarine “INS Drakon” which was launched on 14 August 2023 and is now in an advanced stage of construction. The event was covered by the globally respected submarine analyst HI Sutton on his Covert Shores blog and by the Naval News team. INS Drakon is a unique class of submarine & ACINT collection, to gain a baseline acoustic signature, using specialist equipment deployed from a purpose built oceanographic vessel, particularly in the benign environment of the Skagerrak is a wholly easier opportunity particularly against a largely “contractor” crew.
A Tweet from respected submarine commentator & Naval News contributor @Saturnax1 (of a picture from @ScharnHelwin dated 11 April 2024) showed NEWCON RSN Invincible class Type 218SG SSP RSS Invicible returning to TKMS yard in Kiel however, it was imagery guru and perceptive @benreuter_IMINT who noted that INS Drakon was missing from her previous position which suggests INS Drakon had relocated to another part of the shipyard by mid-April 2024.
On 24 May 2024, INS Drakon was seen at TKMS with a hydrogen fuel tanker alongside on the jetty. In the video below (from SHIPSPOTTING around the world YouTube channel - well worth subscribing to if you haven’t already), INS Drakon can be see flying “Flag Bravo” from her fin which highly likely indicates the submarine was receiving or preparing to receive hydrogen fuel at that time. This was speculated to be her first charge of hydrogen fuel & suggests she was being prepared for propulsion testing and/or getting underway for trials.
On 2 June 2024, INS Drakon had likely completed fueling & had moved to different wharf at TKMS facility in Kiel & was likely preparing for sea trials.
It is important to state that INS Drakon has not been reported transiting the Kiel canal or passing through the Great Belt. Announcements & movements regarding Israeli submarines are rare so official confirmation from TKMS or the Israeli Navy that INS Drakon has commenced sea trials is unlikely however, given the construction time scale & fueling activity there is a realistic possibility INS Drakon began sea trials in the North Sea during June 2024.
Summary
In summary, the ACINT collection hypothesis lacks any of the crucial corroborating evidence needed to be called a firm assessment. The Israeli Navy & TKMS are unlikely to reveal any clues as to where & when INS Drakon conducted sea trials. Similarly, the exact tasking of OIS Sibiryakov will never be known however, her absence from ISR tasking at NATO BALTOPS 2024 particularly, as it would build upon lessons identified her ISR role in BALTOPS 2023, is worthy of note because it suggests she had higher priority tasking. The short duration and NAVTRK of Sibiryakov on 15-16 June is unusual and suggests a short notice, time-bounded UW task occurred.
One thing we can be sure of is that with Russia maintaining a strong Naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea from its Naval Base in Tartus, good quality ACINT data on one of the Levant Region’s newest & arguably most potent submarines would be a very high priority intelligence requirement for Russian Naval Intelligence and its regional ally, Iran.