Russia likely began weapon trials at the Nenoksa missile test site, early August 2024
Testing of an unidentified land-based missile system was likely conducted at the Nenoksa missile test site on 7/8 August 2024. Dependent on success, further tests could continue until 13 August.
It is likely Russia commenced testing of a new or experimental land-based missile system from the Nenoksa test site on 7 August 2024. Several maritime closure (PRIP) and airspace closure (NOTAM) areas were activated for the 7-13 August 2024 covering a 500NM long land and sea corridor between Nenoksa to Krasino in southern Novaya Zemlya.
The nature of the closures differs significantly from sea-based missile firings for submarine launched ballistic/cruise missiles or shipborne land-attack/anti-ship cruise missile and is seen to cover the Nenoksa missile test site at its south west corner. The 500NM long narrow corridor arrangement implies a direct point-to-point firing; a scenario typically associated with experimental testing of new missiles, vehicles, and/or their propulsion systems.
The range likely opened during the late Zulu hours on 7 August and closed during the morning Zulu hours on 8 August and that timeframe supports an assumption that meaningful test activity was carried out; however, the time of any attempted or actual launch, or an indication of the system being tested, was unable to be confirmed. Dependent on success, further testing and/or flights could continue until the 13 August under further range opening sessions.
Chief amongst the candidate developmental missile systems which may have been tested on 7 August would be the 9M730 “Burevestnik” (NATO: SSC-X-9 Skyfall) nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile.
Little information has been released on the progress of the 9M730 missile programme particularly since 8 August 2019 when a nuclear accident, widely believed to be associated with the 9M730 missile and involving an “isotope power source for a liquid-fueled rocket engine” occurred at the Nenoksa test range. The timing of this closure and activity is almost exactly five years to the day since that incident and the closure arrangement would support a motor test assumption.
A further candidate developmental missile system could be the 3M22 “Zircon” (NATO: SS-N-33) scramjet-powered, nuclear capable hypersonic cruise missile. The Naval variant of this missile is widely reported by Russian Military and Government sources as being operational and fitted to Russian Navy Northern Fleet Pr.22350 class frigate SKR-454 “Admiral Gorshkov” however, this is has never been proved and further doubt in the claim exists as the other two ships in the Pr.22350 class, SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” and SKR-456 “Admiral Golovko” have not tested Zircon let alone been fitted with it.
Nevertheless, TASS reporting in 2019 suggested a land-based variant was being developed and a Zircon missile system was reportedly used on land targets in Ukraine on7 February and 25 March 2024. There is a realistic possibility this test could have been an engine test of a longer-range land-based variant of Zircon.
No official confirmation from Russian sources has so far been issued but there is a possibility press reporting will be issued after the PRIP & NOTAM expire on 13 August.