Russia begins large scale exercise in the Baltic Sea
Baltic and Northern Fleet forces with support from the Aerospace forces of the Leningrad and Moscow Military districts have begun a large scale "base defence" exercise in the Baltic Sea.
The Russian Navy Baltic Fleet have commenced a large-scale multi-Fleet, multi-force exercise period in the Baltic Sea with aerospace support from the Moscow and Leningrad Military districts.
In a video posted by TASS, likely from 26 May 2025, at least three Baltic Fleet likely Pr.21631 Buyan-M class missile corvettes, a Pr.22800 class Karakurt class missile corvette, a Pr.1331M Parchim class ASW corvette and several unidentified warship were noted departing Baltiysk and likely pre-staging to the Gulf of Finland or Khronstadt/St. Petersburg area before the exercise begins in earnest.
As previously reported, BPK-626 Vice Admiral Kulakov entered the Baltic Sea during the forenoon 26 May, and is almost certainly one of the exercise participants. There is a realistic possibility further Northern Fleet warships could yet arrive for the exercise and Severomorsk based Pr.22350 class frigate SKR-461 “Admiral Kasatanov” and/or Pr.1155 Udaloy class BPK-619 “Severomorsk” would be strong candidates to participate, in addition to Northern Fleet and strategic air assets.
Billed as a base defence exercise by the Press service of the Baltic Fleet “more than 20 warships, boats and support vessels are involved in the exercises, including a frigate, corvettes, small missile ships and boats, small anti-submarine ships, minesweepers, and support vessels” and “about 3,000 servicemen, 25 aircraft and helicopters, and up to 70 units of military and special equipment” are scheduled to participate.
Comment
Russia is almost certainly responding to NATO activities in the region and will likely use the exercise to demonstrate its ASuW, ASW and anti-commercial shipping capabilities along with mine warfare and special forces activity. There is increased likelihood of surface-to-surface, surface-to-air and coastal defence missile firing activity in the southern Baltic Sea over the next 7-10 days and given the poor state of relations between the West and Russia, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an air-to-surface missile firing event! But perhaps that is a step too far, even for President Putin.
It is likely the exercise will be confined to the southern and central Baltic Sea, north west of Cape Taran on the Baltic Sea exercise ranges however, of concern, there will likely be an element of activity in the restricted and congested waters of the Gulf of Finland. Whilst traditionally, the Baltic Fleet rarely conduct meaningful weapon firing activity in this area, there is an increased likelihood of gunnery and torpedo-firing activity in the Gulf of Finland during the exercise timeframe.
The timing and scope of this Russian exercise is understandable but only serves to greatly increase regional tension. NATO will almost certainly continue to conduct high levels of airborne and seaborne surveillance during the exercise; indeed, the French SIGINT vessel Dupuy de Lome recently entered the region to bolster NATO’s Baltic Sentry surveillance operations.
Exercise activity can, and has, been used as cover for asymmetric warfare activity and it is likely Russian Forces activity will fall outside expected pattern-of-life norms leading to uncertainty. Given the high levels of forces deployed by both sides and the tension this creates, the risk of an incident between NATO and Russian forces, due to miscalculation, over the next 7-10 days is assessed as high.
Anybody remember the FV Kapitan Lobanov incident?
19 March 2024 in case you were wondering?